Disease mapping and regression with count data in the presence of overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation: a Bayesian model averaging approach

This paper applies the generalised linear model for modelling geographical variation to esophageal cancer incidence data in the Caspian region of Iran. The data have a complex and hierarchical structure that makes them suitable for hierarchical analysis using Bayesian techniques, but with care required to deal with problems arising from counts of events observed in small geographical areas when overdispersion and residual spatial autocorrelation are present. These considerations lead to nine regression models derived from using three probability distributions for count data: Poisson, generalised Poisson and negative binomial, and three different autocorrelation structures. We employ the framework of Bayesian variable selection and a Gibbs sampling based technique to identify significant cancer risk factors. The framework deals with situations where the number of possible models based on different combinations of candidate explanatory variables is large enough such that calculation of posterior probabilities for all models is difficult or infeasible. The evidence from applying the modelling methodology suggests that modelling strategies based on the use of generalised Poisson and negative binomial with spatial autocorrelation work well and provide a robust basis for inference

Job strain — Attributable depression in a sample of working Australians: Assessing the contribution to health inequalities

Background The broad aim of this study was to assess the contribution of job strain to mental health inequalities by (a) estimating the proportion of depression attributable to job strain (low control and high demand jobs), (b) assessing variation in attributable risk by occupational skill level, and (c) comparing numbers of job strain–attributable depression cases to numbers of compensated \u27mental stress\u27 claims. Methods Standard population attributable risk (PAR) methods were used to estimate the proportion of depression attributable to job strain. An adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) of 1.82 for job strain in relation to depression was obtained from a recently published meta-analysis and combined with exposure prevalence data from the Australian state of Victoria. Job strain exposure prevalence was determined from a 2003 population-based telephone survey of working Victorians (n = 1101, 66% response rate) using validated measures of job control (9 items, Cronbach\u27s alpha = 0.80) and psychological demands (3 items, Cronbach\u27s alpha = 0.66). Estimates of absolute numbers of prevalent cases of depression and successful stress-related workers\u27 compensation claims were obtained from publicly available Australian government sources. Results Overall job strain-population attributable risk (PAR) for depression was 13.2% for males [95% CI 1.1, 28.1] and 17.2% [95% CI 1.5, 34.9] for females. There was a clear gradient of increasing PAR with decreasing occupational skill level. Estimation of job strain–attributable cases (21,437) versus "mental stress" compensation claims (696) suggest that claims statistics underestimate job strain–attributable depression by roughly 30-fold. Conclusion Job strain and associated depression risks represent a substantial, preventable, and inequitably distributed public health problem. The social patterning of job strain-attributable depression parallels the social patterning of mental illness, suggesting that job strain is an important contributor to mental health inequalities. The numbers of compensated \u27mental stress\u27 claims compared to job strain-attributable depression cases suggest that there is substantial under-recognition and under-compensation of job strain-attributable depression. Primary, secondary, and tertiary intervention efforts should be substantially expanded, with intervention priorities based on hazard and associated health outcome data as an essential complement to claims statistics

The spatial distribution of esophageal and gastric cancer in Caspian region of Iran: An ecological analysis of diet and socio-economic influences

Recent studies have suggested a systematic geographic pattern of esophageal cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC) incidence in the Caspian region of Iran. The aims of this study were to investigate the association between these cancers and the region's dietary and socioeconomic risk factors and to map EC and GC after adjustment for the risk factors and the removal of random and geographic variations from area specific age standardised incidence ratios (SIRs)

Geographical spread of gastrointestinal tract cancer incidence in the Caspian Sea region of Iran : spatial analysis of cancer registry data

BACKGROUND: High incidence rates of gastrointestinal tract cancers have been reported in the Caspian region of Iran. This study aimed to: 1) describe the geographical spatial patterns of gastrointestinal tract cancer incidence based on cancer registry data and, 2) determine whether geographical clusters of statistical significance exist. METHODS: The Babol Cancer Registry, which covers the two major northern Iranian provinces of Mazandaran and Golestan (total population = 4,484,622) was used to identify new gastrointestinal tract cancer cases during 2001 to 2005. Age-specific cancer incidence rates were calculated for 7 gastrointestinal tract cancer sites in 26 wards of the Mazandaran and Golestan provinces. Spatial autocorrelation indices, hierarchical Bayesian Poisson models, and spatial scan statistics were used in measuring the geographic pattern and clusters. RESULTS: There were non-random spatial patterns in esophageal and stomach cancers that were similar for both sexes. Clusters of high incidence were identified in esophageal, stomach, colorectal and liver cancer for both sexes, as well as a possible cluster of pancreas cancer in males. CONCLUSION: Gastrointestinal tract cancers exhibit significant spatial clustering of risk in northern Iran. Further work is needed to relate these geographical patterns to information on potential life-style and environmental factors

Predicting death in young offenders: a retrospective cohort study

Objective: To examine predictors of death in young offenders who have received a custodial sentence using data routinely collected by juvenile justice services. Design: A retrospective cohort of 2849 (2625 male) 11–20-year-olds receiving their first custodial sentence between 1 January 1988 and 31 December 1999 was identified. Main outcome measures: Deaths, date and primary cause of death ascertained from study commencement to 1 March 2003 by data-matching with the National Death Index; measures comprising year of and age at admission, sex, offence profile, any drug offence, multiple admissions and ethnic and Indigenous status, obtained from departmental records. Results: Theoverallmortalityratewas7.2deathsper1000person-yearsofobservation. Younger admission age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0–1.9), repeat admissions (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1–2.9) and drug offences (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0–2.1) predicted early death. The role of ethnicity/Aboriginality could only be assessed in cohort entrants from 1996 to 1999. The Asian subcohort showed higher risk of death from drug-related causes (HR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1–5.5), more drug offences (relative risk ratio [RRR], 13; 95% CI, 8.5–20.0) and older admission age (oldest group v youngest: RRR, 9.3; 95% CI, 1.3–68.0) than non- Indigenous Australians. Although higher mortality was not identified in Indigenous Australians, this group was more likely to be admitted younger (oldest v youngest: RRR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.15–0.63) and experience repeat admissions (RRR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.0–2.4). Conclusions: Young offenders have a much higher death rate than other young Victorians. Early detention, multiple detentions and drug-related offences are indicators of high mortality risk. For these offenders, targeted healthcare while in custody and further mental healthcare and social support after release appear essential if we are to reduce the mortality rate in this group

Incidence of cardiovascular risk factors by education level 2000-2005 : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle (AusDiab) cohort study

Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a higher prevalence of major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, few longitudinal studies have examined the association between SES and CVD risk factors over time. We aimed to determine whether SES, using education as a proxy, is associated with the onset of CVD risk factors over 5 years in an Australian adult cohort study. Participants in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) study aged 25 years and over who attended both baseline and 5-year follow-up examinations (n=5 967) were categorised according to educational attainment. Cardiovascular risk factor data at both time points were ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement. Women with lower education had a greater risk of progressing from normal weight to overweight or obesity than those with higher education (age-adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.06-2.31). Both men and women with lower education were more likely to develop diabetes (age-adjusted OR from higher education 1.75, 95% CI 1.14-2.71 and 3.01, 95% CI 1.26-7.20, respectively). A lower level of education was associated with a greater number of risk factors accumulated over time in women (OR of progressing from having two or less risk factors at baseline to three or more at follow up, 2.04, 95% 1.32-3.14). In this Australian population-based study, lower educational attainment was associated with an increased risk of developing both individual and total CVD risk factors over a 5-year period. These findings suggest that SES inequalities in CVD will persist into the future.<br /

Estimating the proportion of metabolic health outcomes attributable to obesity: a cross-sectional exploration of body mass index and waist circumference combinations

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that a substantial subgroup of the population who have a high-risk waist circumference (WC) do not have an obese body mass index (BMI). This study aimed to explore whether including those with a non-obese BMI but high risk WC as \u27obese\u27 improves prediction of adiposity-related metabolic outcomes. METHODS: Eleven thousand, two hundred forty-seven participants were recruited. Height, weight and WC were measured. Ten thousand, six hundred fifty-nine participants with complete data were included. Adiposity categories were defined as: BMI(N)/WC(N), BMI(N)/WC(O), BMI(O)/WC(N), and BMI(O)/WC(O) (N&thinsp;=&thinsp;non-obese and O&thinsp;=&thinsp;obese). Population attributable fraction, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and odds ratios (OR) were calculated. RESULTS: Participants were on average 48&nbsp;years old and 50&nbsp;% were men. The proportions of BMI(N)/WC(N), BMI(N)/WC(O), BMI(O)/WC(N) and BMI(O)/WC(O) were 68, 12, 2 and 18&nbsp;%, respectively. A lower proportion of diabetes was attributable to obesity defined using BMI alone compared to BMI and WC combined (32&nbsp;% vs 47&nbsp;%). AUC for diabetes was also lower when obesity was defined using BMI alone (0.62 vs 0.66). Similar results were observed for all outcomes. The odds for hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes and CVD were increased for those with BMI(N)/WC(O) (OR range 1.8-2.7) and BMI(O)/WC(O) (OR 1.9-4.9) compared to those with BMI(N)/WC(N). CONCLUSIONS: Current population monitoring, assessing obesity by BMI only, misses a proportion of the population who are at increased health risk through excess adiposity. Improved identification of those at increased health risk needs to be considered for better prioritisation of policy and resources

The effects of intramuscular tenotomy on the lengthening characteristics of tibialis posterior: high versus low intramuscular tenotomy

BACKGROUND: Lengthening of soft-tissue contractures is frequently required in children with a wide variety of congenital and acquired deformities. However, little is known about the biomechanics of surgical procedures which are commonly used in contracture surgery, or if variations in technique may have a bearing on surgical outcomes. We investigated the hypothesis that the site of intramuscular tenotomy (IMT) within the muscle-tendon-unit (MTU) of the tibialis posterior (TP) would affect the lengthening characteristics. METHODS: We performed a randomized trial on paired cadaver tibialis posterior muscle-tendon-units (TP-MTUs). By random allocation, one of each pair of formalin-preserved TP-MTUs received a high IMT, and the other a low IMT. These were individually tensile-tested with an Instron(®) machine under controlled conditions. A graph of load (Newtons) versus displacement (millimetres) was generated for each pair of tests. The differences in lengthening and load at failure for each pair of TP-MTUs were noted and compared using paired t tests. RESULTS: We found 48% greater lengthening for low IMT compared to high IMT for a given load (P = 0.004, two tailed t test). Load at failure was also significantly lower for the low IMT. These findings confirm our hypothesis that the site of the tenotomy affects the amount of lengthening achieved. This may contribute to the reported variability in clinical outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the relationship between tenotomy site and lengthening may allow surgeons to vary the site of the tenotomy in order to achieve pre-determined surgical goals. It may be possible to control the surgical "dose" by altering the position of the intramuscular tenotomy within the muscle-tendon-unit